Chronicle
Japan: Experts discuss future scenarios, trends and predictions for the cannabis and CBD industry in 2025
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The “Cannabis & CBD News Predictions 2025” project brings together insights from leading experts and practitioners in Japan’s cannabis industry. It looks at 2025 from a variety of perspectives, including legal reforms, market expansion, business strategies, and cultural impacts, both domestically and internationally. The year 2025 has the potential to become a turning point that could reshape the power dynamics of Japan’s cannabis and CBD industry, driven by regulatory changes and shifts in public opinion. For companies, investors, and anyone interested in the future of the field, 2025 promises to be a year not to be forgotten.
Japan’s cannabis and CBD industry business media outlet “CANNABIS INSIGHT” and CBD store research platform “CBD Library” hosted the “Cannabis & CBD News Election 2024” from November 16 to December 7, 2024. In addition to analyzing newsworthy news, they also collected public predictions about what might happen in the industry in 2025. Among the many predictions submitted, four stood out as particularly compelling. They were thoroughly vetted by Japanese experts and specialists, and the results of the in-depth research are reported below.
- Big Pharma Companies Will Begin Clinical Trials for CBD-Based Drugs (*with additional notes);
- The creation of the first cannabis-focused research institute in Asia;
- The United States will legalize cannabis at the federal level, putting pressure on Japan;
- Legal reforms will allow cannabinoids to be widely sold in convenience stores, pharmacies and other retail outlets.
Experts and specialists featured in this article:
- Morley Robertson – International Journalist / Musician / Commentator
- Yuji Masataka – Representative Director of Green Zone Japan
- Ryota Nakazawa – President and CEO, Asabis Inc. | CBD Club
- Naoko Miki – Translator and Director of Green Zone Japan
- Teruyuki Sudo – Representative Director of the National Cannabis Industries Association and CEO of CannaTech Corporation
■ Prediction 1: Major pharmaceutical companies will begin clinical trials for CBD-based drugs
(※The analysis excludes GW Pharmaceuticals’ “Epidiolex”)
▼Commentator: Yuji Masataka
Background: Born in Kyoto in 1985. He graduated from Kumamoto University School of Medicine, is a physician and director of the Japan Cannabinoid Clinical Society. In 2017, he founded Green Zone Japan, a non-profit organization to disseminate evidence-based information about medical cannabis.
Current observations on major pharmaceutical companies
“Currently, there are no significant moves by major pharmaceutical companies to develop prescription CBD drugs beyond Epidiolex. Developing a pharmaceutical product requires large-scale clinical trials, which entails enormous costs. In Japan, cannabinoid pharmaceuticals covered by universal health insurance may provide an incentive for development. However, in countries or regions where recreational cannabis or full-spectrum medicinal cannabis has already been legalized, the advantages of developing prescription cannabinoid drugs are limited. It is more likely that the supplement divisions of large pharmaceutical companies will venture into this field first. Furthermore, the new drug development environment in Japan is becoming increasingly challenging for pharmaceutical companies. This trend was further exacerbated by a recent joint statement issued by PhRMA (Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America) and EFPIA (European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations), which highlighted the growing obstacles to new drug development in Japan.
■ Prediction 2: Establishment of Asia’s First Specialized Cannabis Research Institute
▼Commentator: Ryota Nakazawa
Background: After graduating from Hitotsubashi University with a degree in economics, he worked for a publicly traded IT company and was seconded to South America, overseeing new business ventures. He later founded a company specializing in international marketing and became CEO of the Japanese branch of a French IT company. He currently works as a management consultant for CBD Club and Asabis Inc., which he created to explore the potential and challenges of CBD and hemp in Japan. He is dedicated to building infrastructure for the CBD/hemp industry.
Advancing cannabis research as a key to innovation
“Globally, there is a notable shift from treatment to prevention and from healthcare to wellness. In this context, the growing attention to hemp is unlikely to slow down. Hemp is recognised not only for its applications in medicine and wellness, but also for its potential in a variety of fields, such as food, environment, energy and traditional industries. However, its practical use is still in its early stages. To fully harness the potential of hemp, research and innovations derived from it are crucial. For example, Thailand has already established a research institute specialising in medicinal cannabis. I hope to see comprehensive cannabis research promoted and conducted across Asia, including Japan. If there is any way I can contribute to these efforts, I would be happy to help.”
■ Prediction 3: US legalizes cannabis and puts pressure on Japan
▼Commentator: Naoko Miki
Background: Translator and director of Green Zone Japan, a non-profit organization she co-founded with physician Yuji Masataka in 2017. A graduate of the Department of Languages at International Christian University, she has been sharing information about medical cannabis from overseas since 2010 and has published related books such as “Why Is Cannabis Illegal?” and “The Science of CBD.” She also wrote the Japanese subtitles for the film ‘The Scientist’ [about Professor Raphael Mechoulam] and manages the Japanese website for the CBD Project, a US-based non-profit organization.
Uncertainty Surrounding Trump's Legalization Stance
“While it is understandable that the Republican candidate — historically reluctant to legalize cannabis — has adopted a more favorable stance given the 70% of Americans who support legalization, it is clear that Trump has no commitment to following through on his campaign promises. His position on legalization has shifted several times, and I remain skeptical that federal legalization will happen during his second term. That said, the Trump administration is setting policy priorities that benefit big business. When it comes to cannabis, they are likely to implement measures that benefit big business, such as reclassifying cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III. This would allow big banks to engage with cannabis companies and would allow favorable tax policies to be applied to big business. Ultimately, the direction of policy will likely depend on which lobbyists invest the most money. Regardless, I believe the likelihood of federal cannabis legalization in 2025 and the U.S. pressuring Japan to do the same is extremely low.” Even if legalization were to occur during Trump’s four-year term, it would take significant time to implement federal laws. Furthermore, the U.S. cannabis market would face major upheaval, leaving little room for the U.S. to exert pressure on other countries like Japan.”
■ Prediction 4: Legal reforms allow cannabinoid products to be sold in convenience stores, pharmacies and other retail outlets
▼Commentator: Teruyuki Sudo
Background: Entrepreneur and investor specializing in the health food sector, he founded a natural foods company in 2010 and sold it to a company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in 2022, gaining experience in compliance and governance at the public company level. In 2019, he founded CannaTech Inc., inspired by the potential of CBD. In 2024, he founded the National Cannabis Industry Association of Japan, becoming its representative director.
2025 will be a transformative year for the CBD market
“It is highly likely that pharmacies will sell CBD supplements in capsule or tablet form, while convenience stores may adopt casual formats such as drinks and snacks. Most of the products currently available are not the kind that sell simply by being placed on the shelf. Market expansion depends on how consumer-friendly these products can be. Among cannabinoids, CBD and CBG are the easiest to introduce, while CBN still faces challenges due to issues such as false positives in drug tests. A key basis for market expansion is ensuring that products meet strict regulatory limits and demonstrate resistance to degradation over time. This will require significant efforts from both raw material suppliers and manufacturers. I believe that 2025 will be a pivotal year, with the CBD market undergoing a drastic shift in its power structure. The industry is poised for a year of intense change and growth!”
■ Special Contribution
▼Commentator: Morley Robertson
Morley Robertson: Born in New York City and raised in Hiroshima, he achieved the rare feat of being accepted into both the University of Tokyo and Harvard University in 1981. A multi-talented figure, he has worked in a wide range of fields, from being a TV presenter, personality and musician to working as an international journalist.
The Outlook for Cannabis and CBD in Japan in 2025: A Bleak Future Outside of Medicine
Isolationist Policy and Media Bias
“The future of cannabis and CBD in Japan looks bleak outside the medical field. This is due to the “isolationist” stance of the political and media sectors on the subject. The risks of cannabis compared to hard drugs or synthetic narcotics are rarely reported, with the narrative being dismissed under the label of “contamination”. As a result, the public lacks critical information and instead adheres to highly biased propaganda, such as the “No! Absolutely Not!” campaign, leaving no room for constructive discussions on legalization or regulation. It will be a considerable time before the risks and benefits of cannabis can be objectively assessed in Japan.”
The fading wave of legalization in the US
“For years, many predicted that the wave of legalization in the US would eventually reach Japan. However, federal legalization in the US has stalled. While Trump expressed a willingness to support legalization during the election to win over younger voters and Democrats, his track record shows little commitment to following through on campaign promises. A second Trump administration would likely prioritize policies that appeal to his base, such as immigration restrictions, tariffs on China, and tax cuts. The influence of figures like Elon Musk could play a role in advancing cannabis legalization, but the timing remains uncertain.”
Structural Deficiencies in Japanese Media
“Japanese media suffer from systemic problems, including a tendency to side with the “strongest side” at any given time, be it the government, sponsors or mainstream public opinion. This results in a lack of incentives to report “bad news” or challenging topics. In addition, media coverage often favours celebrities or cultural commentators over experts, which is unusual by international standards. This reinforces the status quo, since challenging existing rules and systems rarely occurs.
However, the Japanese media are also quick to change their stance when the wind changes. For example, the anti-nuclear tone of the 2010s has shifted to support for nuclear power as a measure against inflation. Similarly, the press has adopted a tougher stance against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party after its loss of dominance. In entertainment, the scandals involving the once-untouchable Johnny & Associates have been widely reported after BBC coverage broke the “wall of silence”. These shifts suggest that if cannabis were to gain official approval, the media could quickly shift to supporting it.
Lobbying and Strategic Advocacy
“To promote cannabis advocacy in Japan, lessons can be drawn from the strategies of the nuclear power industry, which has made significant strides through consistent lobbying, outreach to political and business leaders, and public relations efforts. On the other hand, political groups that once championed anti-nuclear agendas are now marginalized. For cannabis legalization, objective data showing that cannabis causes less harm than alcohol or nicotine, coupled with its broad medical applications, may not be enough to sway public opinion. However, the economic potential of legalization is attracting the attention of politicians and business leaders. A strategic approach that includes lobbying legislators, targeting local elections, and leveraging media outlets that have already reported favorably on cannabis could be effective. Creating a “publicity agency” for cannabis could help shape public perception and promote the cause.”
Cultural and historical perspectives
“In the US, cannabis legalization has its roots in the countercultural movements during the Vietnam War, where it was a symbol of defiance against authority. Figures such as Timothy Leary, a Harvard professor turned psychedelic advocate, and cultural icons such as the Beatles played significant roles in normalizing cannabis use. Over time, these ideas have matured and permeated society. While Japan’s trajectory is markedly different, spreading awareness among intellectuals, artists, and academics can be a powerful means of promoting cannabis recognition. These groups can create narratives and produce works that have lasting impact, unlike the fleeting influence of social media. Japan’s Ministry of Health and the monotonous “bureaucratic tone” of mainstream media leave a gap in the market for new and engaging narratives. Positioning cannabis legalization as “fashionable” and part of the future mainstream can lay the foundation for a cultural shift in the next five years.”
■ Co-Organizers
◎ CBD Library (operated by Wellness Kit Co., Ltd.) CBD Library operates a CBD store search platform covering 1.360 stores across Japan, as well as a selected store online.
URL: https://cbd-library.com/, https://store.cbd-library.com/ (Data as of December 2024)
◎ CANNABIS INSIGHT CANNABIS INSIGHT is a media platform dedicated to cannabis and CBD news. It publishes the “World Cannabis News” weekly (every Sunday), covering global cannabis and CBD trends. In addition, it offers in-depth articles on cannabis, CBD, startups and technology, aimed at CBD companies and professionals. The platform also offers a service that allows the distribution of weekly news content, allowing companies to integrate the “Weekly Cannabis News” into their newsletters or other commercial materials.
URL: https://cannabisinsight.jp/
■ Sponsoring Brands for the '2024 Cannabis and CBD News Election'
VapeMania: https://www.vapemania.jp/
CannaTech: https://cannatech.co.jp/
SKEW: https://skew420.com/
C&H: https://ch.inc/
CBD: https://cbdbu.jp/
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[Disclaimer: Please note that this text was originally written in Portuguese and is translated into English and other languages using an automatic translator. Some words may differ from the original and typos or errors may occur in other languages.]____________________________________________________________________________________________________
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Takuya Aiuchi
Takuya Aiuchi is the founder of Japan's leading CBD information platform, "CBD Library". A pioneer in the industry, he contributes articles to domestic and international media on cannabis and participates extensively in international exhibitions. Takuya is actively involved in advancing knowledge and trends regarding CBD and cannabinoids in the Japanese and international markets.
Aiuchi is also a member of the Japan Society of Clinical Cannabinoids and has completed with distinction the courses of Cannabis Consultant MM411, CBD Medical Wellbeing MM411, Qualified Pharmaceutical Affairs Manager, Advanced Functional Food Labeling Specialist and Level 1 Certified Aromatherapy Examiner .
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