Analysis
Global cannabis market could reach $55,3 billion by 2028
The global cannabis market could reach $55,3 billion by 2028, but the industry is at a crossroads, the latest edition of the Global Cannabis Report from Prohibition Partners, published this week. Although the industry is poised for significant growth, the cannabis sector faces regulatory hurdles and internal challenges. The 5th edition of Prohibition Partners’ global analysis reveals a complex landscape, where progress and setbacks are intertwined.
The global cannabis industry is experiencing unprecedented growth, with market projections indicating significant expansion across the adult-use, medicinal and CBD sectors. According to the latest report from Prohibition Partners, the total market is expected to grow from $38,6 billion in 2024 to $55,3 billion by 2028, reflecting increased legalization, consumer demand and regulatory advances around the world.
Adult-use market hits $41,3 billion
The adult-use cannabis market is set for a remarkable trajectory, growing from $27,3 billion in 2024 to $41,3 billion in 2028. North America remains the player dominant, with the US leading sales and projected to increase from $22,5 billion in 2024 to approximately $34 billion by 2028. Canada continues to contribute a steady share, while emerging markets in Europe, Latin America and Asia are poised to drive additional growth.
Expansion of medicinal cannabis led by Europe and Oceania
The global medical cannabis market is projected to grow from $11,4 billion in 2024 to $14 billion in 2028. While North America currently dominates, its market share is expected to decline from 84% in 2024 to 70% by 2028 as Europe and Oceania accelerate growth.
The German medical cannabis market is expected to reach $1,2 billion by 2028, following regulatory developments that have increased patient access. The UK is also forecast to grow from $255 million in 2024 to almost $570 million by 2028. The combined market for Australia and New Zealand is expected to expand from $646 million in 2024 to more than $1,3 billion by 2028.
In contrast to the rapid rise in adult-use and medicinal cannabis, the global CBD market is expected to grow at a more stable pace, from $6,04 billion in 2024 to $6,06 billion in 2028. The United States accounts for 60% of CBD sales, although its share is expected to decline as other regions expand.
Global market drivers and future outlook
The expansion of the cannabis market is driven by legalization efforts, increased consumer acceptance and industry innovation. Countries such as Germany, Switzerland and Thailand are implementing frameworks for legal sales, while North American markets continue to mature. Despite regulatory challenges in certain regions, Prohibition Partners anticipates continued investment, consolidation and product diversification in the sector.
Although the historic legalization for adult use in Germany has spurred explosive growth in demand for medical cannabis, the country is facing delays in establishing pilot projects for regulated sales. Conservative political parties, gaining popularity ahead of the 2025 federal election, are threatening to hinder or even reverse efforts to legalize cannabis.
Across the Atlantic, the cannabis market in United States of America (USA) faces regulatory inconsistencies and an uneven playing field. A loophole in the 2018 Farm Bill allowed companies to exploit semi-synthetic derivatives of hemp THC, creating a gray market that challenges legal cannabis businesses. While the rescheduling of cannabis to Schedule III and the passage of the SAFER Banking Act offer potential solutions, their progress remains uncertain, particularly in a polarized political climate.
Meanwhile, the cannabis market in Canada is showing signs of recovery, driven by increased exports of medicinal cannabis and a recovery in sales. However, the sector still faces an imbalance between supply and demand, and competition from the illicit market continues to put pressure on prices.
Telemedicine is revolutionising patient access in Europe, but it is also raising concerns about prescribing practices. The medical cannabis market in United Kingdom is expanding, but its private nature and limited availability of products create barriers for patients. Recent restrictions on Poland to telemedicine for medical cannabis prescriptions have significantly reduced patient access, highlighting the vulnerability of progress to regulatory change.
Other global insights
A Latin America presents a multitude of opportunities and challenges. Although the Brazil and Colombia are promising in terms of consumption and production growth respectively, regulatory agility and a change in social attitudes are crucial to unlocking the region's full potential.
O Japan is emerging as a potential leader in the Asian cannabis market, with a detailed framework for pharmaceutical cannabis, CBD products and hemp cultivation. This regulatory clarity offers a significant advantage compared to the ambiguous CBD landscape in many European countries.
The cannabis industry of South Africa is seeing growth in both medical cannabis production for export and a growing domestic “grey market.” However, challenges remain in terms of genetics, compliance and the need for additional regulation to ensure quality and collect taxes.
Looking ahead, the global cannabis industry will need to navigate a complex web of factors, including:
- Evolving regulations and policy landscapes
- Balancing patient access with responsible prescribing
- Illicit market competition
- Ensure product quality and safety
- Building sustainable and ethical supply chains
Telemedicine boosts patient access but regulatory challenges remain
According to the Global Cannabis Report, telemedicine is significantly changing the medical cannabis industry internationally, boosting patient access and shaping its future. This trend is particularly evident in countries such as United Kingdom, Australia, Germany and New Zealand.
However, regulatory challenges, such as those seen in Poland, highlight the need for careful consideration and balance between patient access and responsible prescribing.
Expanding patient access and driving growth
Traditional barriers to medical cannabis treatment, such as a limited number of prescribing physicians and geographic restrictions, are being addressed through telemedicine platforms. Virtual consultations and remote prescriptions are enabling patients to connect with healthcare professionals regardless of location.
Australia: The emergence of private cannabis-focused telemedicine clinics is offering an alternative pathway for patients to access treatment, as many traditional healthcare providers have been slow to embrace medicinal cannabis. This has led to a substantial increase in patient numbers and prescriptions. The number of medicinal cannabis units sold in Australia doubled in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023, reaching 2,87 million units.
Germany: Regulatory changes under the MedCanG Act have simplified the prescribing process and enabled electronic prescriptions for medicinal cannabis. This has facilitated greater access through telehealth services. As a result, Germany is seeing a surge in imports of medicinal cannabis, reaching a record 20,1 tonnes in Q2024 71,9, an increase of 2024% compared to QXNUMX XNUMX.
New Zealand: Similar to Australia, private telemedicine clinics in New Zealand offer patients a way to access medical cannabis treatment outside of traditional healthcare channels, which have been slow to embrace medical cannabis. This approach has contributed to a significant increase in both patients and prescriptions, with the number of monthly prescriptions doubling in 2023 compared to 2022.
Poland: Poland’s experience serves as a warning about the potential downsides of unrestricted telemedicine for medical cannabis. The country has seen a rapid increase in medical cannabis prescriptions through remote consultation services, raising concerns about potential overprescription and a pseudo-recreational market.
In response, Polish authorities introduced new regulations in November 2024 restricting the use of telemedicine to prescriptions for medicinal cannabis. Private clinics can no longer offer remote consultations, while doctors in the public health service can only do so if the patient has already had an in-person consultation.
The impact of these restrictions was immediate and significant. Prescriptions for medicinal cannabis plummeted, from 68.000 in October 2024 to 28.000 in December 2024.
Regulatory challenges and the future of telemedicine in medical cannabis
While telemedicine has played a vital role in expanding patient access to medical cannabis, it has also presented regulatory challenges. Finding the right balance between facilitating access and ensuring responsible prescribing is crucial to the long-term growth and sustainability of the sector.
Australia: Government agencies such as AHPRA are actively addressing concerns about overprescribing and patient safety. New telehealth guidelines have been updated, recommending real-time consultations and appropriate care. Investigations conducted by AHPRA have resulted in some clinics and GPs losing their licences to dispense medicinal cannabis.
Germany: The potential for misuse of telemedicine by recreational users seeking medicinal cannabis is a subject of ongoing debate. This highlights the need for continued regulatory review and possible adjustments to ensure responsible access.
Telemedicine is poised to continue to be a vital force in the medical cannabis industry. As technology advances and regulations adapt, telehealth platforms are likely to become even more integrated into healthcare systems, offering patients convenient and accessible treatment options around the world.
However, addressing regulatory challenges and ensuring responsible prescribing practices will be crucial to the sustained success of the cannabis sector globally.
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[Disclaimer: Please note that this text was originally written in Portuguese and is translated into English and other languages using an automatic translator. Some words may differ from the original and typos or errors may occur in other languages.]____________________________________________________________________________________________________
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With a degree in Journalism from the University of Coimbra, Laura Ramos has a postgraduate degree in Photography and has been a Journalist since 1998. Winner of the Business of Cannabis Awards in the category "Journalist of the Year 2024", Laura was a correspondent for Jornal de Notícias in Rome, Italy, and Press Officer in the Office of the Minister of Education of the 21st Portuguese Government. She has an international certification in Permaculture (PDC) and created the street-art photography archive “Say What? Lisbon” @saywhatlisbon. Co-founder and Editor of CannaReporter® and coordinator of PTMC - Portugal Medical Cannabis, Laura directed the documentary “Pacientes” and was part of the steering group of the first Postgraduate Course in GxP's for Medicinal Cannabis in Portugal, in partnership with the Military Laboratory and the Faculty of Pharmacy of the University of Lisbon.
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