From major regulatory developments to new advancements in cannabis healthcare and gradual shifts in opinion, there are many reasons to be optimistic about the year ahead.
With the help of some experts, we've put together our predictions and reasons to be hopeful about cannabis reform in 2024.
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Europe is already on the right path to change
While it may seem like progress in Europe has been slow, 2023 has seen a continued increase in the number of patients able to access medical cannabis, while several countries have taken the first steps towards legalizing adult use.
“In recent years, the EU has made substantial progress with regards to the legalization of cannabis,” says Lance Lambert, CMO of Grove Bags and former industry consultant specializing in the European and North American markets.
“Several countries, including Switzerland, Germany, Portugal and the Czech Republic, have created medical programs. Others, such as France and Ireland, are developing pilot projects. But the latest wave that has attracted the most attention has been progress around adult-use, or ‘recreational, cannabis’ legislation.”
Malta became the first EU country to do so, with the introduction of the Cannabis Reform Act in early 2022. Despite a slow start, five institutions have already obtained licenses approved to operate non-profit social clubs, more licenses are planned in 2024.
Last year, Luxembourg legalized personal possession and home cultivation of up to four plants as part of the first phase of its two-phase approach to reform.
Meanwhile, pilot programs have been launched in Switzerland and the Netherlands, which are expected to be expanded next year. And of course, all eyes are on Germany as we await a vote on the bill in early 2024.
As Jamie Pearson, president of the New Holland Group, says: “The cannabis train has left the station.”
“The Swiss and Dutch pilot programs, a very clever way of circumventing EU and UN policy, will expand and present favorable numbers, to the feigned surprise of legislators,” he predicts.
And while Lambert doesn't foresee any “real movement at scale” until 2026, he adds: “While I see continued advancement in acceptance and legalization, the real turning point will be when Germany gives the go-ahead for recreational use. This will affect countries like Finland and Spain, and everyone in between. Until then, the few remaining EU members will likely move forward with legalizing medical use, at the very least. As the EU has a population of 448 million inhabitants, the widespread legalization of adult consumption will be a real moment of change, both for Europe and for the global market in general”.
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Germany can pave the way for broader EU reform
Despite some caution, local sources are “extremely confident” that the cannabis reform bill will be approved by the German parliament in January or February, with the first pillar of the phased approach coming into force on April 1, 2024. .
The first pillar allows personal use of restricted quantities of cannabis, home cultivation and the establishment of a non-profit social club model. The second pillar foresees the introduction of legal commercial supply chains in certain districts and states, which will be subject to scientific control for five years, although it is not yet known when they will be introduced.
As a major power in the EU, many believe that Germany will be able to lay the foundations for the implementation of cannabis reform at European level.
Olivia Ewenike, a German lawyer specializing in the cannabis industry and co-founder of the Lito law Academy, commented: “To date, the EU has tolerated the fact that cannabis use is not subject to criminal prosecution in some Member States. If Germany were to actually legalize cannabis to the extent currently planned, it would be the most comprehensive step in the EU to date. The Commission announced that the plans will be closely examined. I think some European countries will wait to see if Germany can legalize cannabis without being reprimanded by the EU.”
Frederike Fäscher, consultant at Berlin-based PIVOT Regulatory, agrees with this statement: “The impact will be big. Although national frameworks are always different, they share a common issue, which is, firstly, being members of the United Nations Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs – which prohibits the commercial sale of cannabis for adult use – and, on the other hand, the Agreement of Schengen, which is part of the European Union's primary legal language that translates this, so getting around this is really difficult.
“It is said that it would take at least seven countries to convince the EU to abolish that part of the agreement or to bypass it – and we know of some that already have initiatives underway. They need a strong wing under which to fly to try to open up the agreement again and move towards something more commercial.”
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Greater acceptance of medical cannabis
If passed, the introduction of the German cannabis law will mean an even clearer distinction between medicinal and recreational cannabis. Medical cannabis will no longer be listed as a narcotic or require a specialized narcotic prescription.
Einwenke explains: “A fundamental change is the fact that a special prescription for narcotics is no longer necessary, and a standard medical prescription is now sufficient. Therefore, it can be assumed that many more doctors will have the confidence to prescribe cannabis as a medicine. This will also simplify the process. The requirement for a medical prescription and the fact that only pharmacies are authorized to dispense medical cannabis will remain in force. However, many bureaucratic requirements will no longer apply.”
It is hoped that this measure will not only help reduce stigma and increase confidence in prescribing, but also facilitate the production and distribution of medical cannabis.
“Until now, medical cannabis companies had to participate in a public tender and could only cultivate a limited quantity. From now on, companies will be able to independently apply for a manufacturing license and distribute cannabis themselves,” continues Einwenke.
“This will lead to a greater diversity of medical cannabis strains and types and better care for cannabis patients.”
From a commercial perspective, Fäscher adds that any company eyeing Germany should focus on medicinal use rather than adult use.
“Cannabis clubs are good and fun and there will be ways to market them, but not in the way a commercial market works when it comes to product diversity, quality assurance or vertically integrated supply chains – this is still a long way off. future”, he states.
“Anyone interested in making money in Germany should focus on the medical aspect.”
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The US will move towards federal reform, which could have a global impact
Across the ocean, potential regulatory changes could also have a major global impact. Some predict that 2024 could be the year in which the US reclassifies cannabis at a federal level, which will undoubtedly have a knock-on effect on the EU.
“I believe that by 2024, both the US and Germany will reclassify cannabis,” says Michael Sassano, CEO of SOMAI Pharmaceuticals.
“These two events will spark a global cannabis fire across all EU countries, re-evaluating and opening up cannabis.”
Last year, the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recommended that cannabis be reclassified from Schedule I to Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA).
This recommendation came 10 months after President Joe Biden announced that he was asking federal agencies to review the classification of cannabis, as well as his intention to pardon thousands of inauguration-related offenses.
In December, Biden issued a proclamation that expanded his pardon initiative for federal cannabis offenders.
The US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) has now confirmed that it is conducting a review of the reclassification of cannabis.
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New technology and AI will improve patient care
With advances in healthcare technology coming at a rapid pace, 2024 could see some major changes in the way cannabis-based medicines are prescribed.
Several new platforms and tools are being developed with the aim of empowering patients and prescribers regarding medical cannabis.
“I am optimistic that AI and advanced technology for precision medicine will enter the UK and EU through my contacts in the US,” says Heidi Whitman, supporter of groups such as We Decode and Genetica Flora AI.
“Allow patients and consumers to be in control of their cannabis journey, prescribers can access scientific reference reports to have confidence in prescribing, and retailers/dispensaries/clinics have a better understanding of the products to stock and provide a better consistency through data generated by groups that internationalize products for people and clinics/dispensaries. Better health through better data.”
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Cannabis for medicinal and wellness purposes will (gradually) become more accepted in the UK
Slowly but surely, medical cannabis is expected to become more accepted in society throughout the year, with an increasing number of medical and wellness-focused consumption spaces being created on high streets.
Jay-Paul Jones opened the first medicinal cannabis consumption space in Wales late last year, with the support of the police and local authorities. Similar projects have been successful elsewhere in the United Kingdom, with some of them receiving media attention, as is the case in Northern Ireland.
Sam Cannon recently co-founded Good Vibes Wellness Group with Alex French and Vitalijs Kaneps, a community organization centered around urban adaptogen farms and wellness cafes on the UK's high streets.
“I think by 2024 there will be many more places like Good Vibes on high streets across the UK, meeting the needs of patients and consumers,” he says.
“This, in turn, will increase awareness of medical cannabis, mushrooms, health and well-being, move patients from an illegal market to a legal market, whilst also having a positive impact on community and environment.”
While there are still some important regulatory hurdles to overcome for widespread access to medicinal cannabis in the UK, the industry will continue to pressure policymakers to improve things, says Mike Morgan-Giles, CEO of the Cannabis Industry Council.
“The UK cannabis industry still faces a largely incoherent regulatory and policy framework, which creates a number of challenges for patients and the medical supply chain,” he comments.
“Despite the unfounded stigma on the part of some elements of society, the number of patients subject to medical prescriptions continues to grow. It remains vital to improve education and engagement with public authorities around medical cannabis prescriptions.
“To further support patients, there is a need to increase NHS reimbursement for private medical cannabis prescriptions and establish NHS access routes for receiving unlicensed CBPM prescriptions.”
This year will also see the start of some important clinical trials to help build an evidence base to support this.
Melissa Sturgess, CEO of Ananda Developments, which is running an NHS-funded randomized control trial on CBD-dominant cannabis and endometriosis, predicts that: “2024 will be the year we see the shift in direction for cannabis-based medicines. in the United Kingdom. We have a determined group of like-minded people who represent patients, prescribe medical cannabis and conduct clinical trials who will not rest until we see these cannabinoid medicines available to all patients who need them.”
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Cannabis will be more widely recognized for its ESG role
Professionals in the cannabis industry are well aware of the benefits of cannabis as a crop – not only for people's health, but also for the planet.
Cannabis absorbs twice as much CO2 as trees, improves soil quality and can be transformed into a sustainable material for construction and fabrics, as well as an alternative for energy production. Will 2024 be the year this is recognized on a more widespread scale?
Sam Cannon, co-chair of CIC's Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) subgroup, thinks so.
“ESG will become mainstream and the cannabis industry will be recognized as a tool to help with many health conditions and environmental issues,” predicts Cannon, who co-authored a report highlighting the ESG benefits of an expanded cannabis market. medical cannabis at the end of 2023.
“The social and environmental damage caused by organized criminals who grow and sell cannabis illegally is difficult to exaggerate.
“Expanding the legal market through better access has the potential to reduce organized crime and all associated harms, such as human trafficking and environmental damage.”
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Note: This article, written by Journalist Sarah Sinclair, was originally published in the British magazine CannabisHealth and translated for Cannareporter by Journalist João Xabregas.
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